![]() Read: The midterms could permanently change North Carolina politics For the first time in nearly a decade, they’re running on health care rather than away from it. And Democrats found themselves in the position of fighting to defend its good parts rather than having to explain away its bad ones. After 2016, Republicans found themselves in the position of fighting against a law that suddenly went from being unpopular to being popular. Those numbers, which come from the Wesleyan Media Project, help demonstrate the way the law’s politics have gone topsy-turvy and its political sway has grown since President Donald Trump came into office. This year, it came up in more than half of Democratic ads and nearly a third of those for Republicans. 12 points.įor their part, 35% of independents report more enthusiasm this year - which, though down 16 points since 2018, is essentially on par with the 1994-2014 readings for the group.Here’s an amazing political statistic: In 2016, the Affordable Care Act came up in just 10 percent of pro-Democrat campaign advertisements and 16 percent of pro-Republican ones. While both readings are lower than those in the final preelection poll in 2018, Republicans' enthusiasm is down more than Democrats' is, by 23 points vs. This is a significant reversal from June, when Republicans (58%) were more enthusiastic than Democrats (48%). In all, 57% of Democrats and 49% of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year. In early to mid-October, when the latest poll was conducted, Democrats held a minor advantage in enthusiasm over Republicans, with eight points separating the party groups. Rather, the metric seems to capture how Republicans and Democrats feel about their party's chances in the upcoming election, evidenced by the fact that the party with greater enthusiasm tends to prevail in the midterms. Gallup has not found a direct relationship, historically, between Republicans' and Democrats' enthusiasm for each election and their turnout rate. The current Democratic reading, however, is seven points higher than the average since 1994. The readings for Republicans and independents are close to the averages for those groups since 1994, at 55% and 39%, respectively. As is typical, far fewer independents (37%) say the same. This year, neither party has an edge on this measure, as 57% of Democrats and Republicans alike report they have thought a lot about the elections. House of Representatives, while the Republicans gained two seats in the Senate. They went on to win back control of the U.S. ![]() In the final preelection poll in 2018, however, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to have given the election a lot of thought. ![]() Since 1994, on average, Republicans have slightly outpaced Democrats in giving thought to elections. Gallup research has shown that the amount of thought given to an election is a key predictor of voter turnout - that is, when people indicate they are thinking more about an upcoming election, turnout is higher. 3-20 Gallup poll, conducted as early voting began in some states. Typically, as Election Day draws closer, the amount of thought given to an election increases.Īlthough the current percentage of Americans who say they are thinking a lot about the elections is five percentage points lower than the final preelection reading in 2018 - a year when turnout was the highest in a midterm election in over 100 years - it is on par with the 48% average for this measure since 1994. While the June figure was unusually high for that point in the midterm election cycle, this lack of change is a departure from previous elections. adults say they have given them "only a little." In addition, 2% volunteer that they have given the midterms "some" thought, while 44% of U.S. The 49% of Americans who say they have given "quite a lot" of thought to this year's congressional elections is essentially unchanged from the previous reading in June. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |